更新时间：2026-08-26 来源：互联网编辑：平文纯扁点击数： 611次

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Chinese expert warns Philippines not to mistake humanitarian accommodation for concession as Philippine military twists facts on Ren’ai Jiao resupply_我的网站

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Screenshot from video obtained by the Global Times on July 21, 2026 shows the transfer of injured Philippine personnel near Ren'ai Jiao, which was overseen and assisted by the China Coast Guard. Photo: Courtesy of the China Coast GuardThe Philippine military side has again claimed that resupplying its grounded warship at Ren'ai Jiao needs no foreign approval and resupply there is within its self-claimed so-called EEZ, while Philippine media acknowledged that 15 "safe" resupply missions were made over the past two years under a China-Philippines provisional arrangement.
Chinese experts warned on Wednesday that Manila should not mistake humanitarian accommodation for a concession and must bear the consequences if it scraps the arrangement.
Yang Xiao, a research fellow at the Institute of Peaceful Development under the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, told the Global Times on Wednesday that the Philippine side's claims are fundamentally flawed from legal, historical and practical perspectives.
Ren'ai Jiao is an inherent part of China's Nansha Qundao, over which China has indisputable and complete sovereignty, Yang said, adding that it is legally untenable for the Philippines to claim that Ren'ai Jiao is part of its exclusive economic zone.
"The Philippines deliberately grounded the abandoned warship at Ren'ai Jiao in 1999 and repeatedly pledged to remove it and restore the reef, but has failed to honor those commitments for more than two decades. This itself constitutes a continuing violation of China's territorial sovereignty," Yang said.
This is not the first time the Philippines has denied seeking China's approval for resupply missions to Ren'ai Jiao. In April 2025, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Guo Jiakun responded to similar claims, saying that China's position on how to handle the current situation at Ren'ai Jiao is clear and consistent.
"First, by keeping its warship grounded at Ren'ai Jiao for decades running, the Philippines has been violating China's sovereignty and the Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea (DOC). We demand that the Philippines tow away the warship. Second, between now and when the warship is towed away, should the Philippines need to send living necessities, China is willing to allow it in a humanitarian spirit if the Philippines informs China in advance and after on-site verification is conducted. Third, if the Philippines were to send large amount of construction materials to the warship and attempt to build fixed facilities or permanent outpost, China will absolutely not accept it and will resolutely stop it in accordance with the law and regulations," said the spokesperson.
"This means that the Philippines' so-called '15 safe and incident-free resupply missions' were all made possible by China's humanitarian accommodation and strict oversight," Yang stressed. Each mission was reported in advance and allowed to proceed only after inspections confirmed no prohibited construction materials were aboard. The CCG intercepted any such materials through lawful measures, Yang said.
The Philippines' unilateral denial of its notification and inspection obligations while enjoying the arrangement's benefits amounts to a blatant breach of its commitments, the expert noted.
Yang also noted that Manila's narrative contains an obvious logical contradiction. If Philippine resupply missions were truly unimpeded, there would be no need for Manila to repeatedly claim that China had "blocked" its missions and call for international intervention. Yet if China had continuously "obstructed" the missions, the Philippines could not have completed 15 safe and incident-free resupply operations.
"Manila has simply manipulated its narrative to suit its publicity needs, portraying itself as a 'victim' when seeking international attention while touting smooth resupply operations and its own strength when seeking to project toughness. Its hype over the 15 resupply missions is essentially aimed at rallying domestic support and stoking confrontation internationally to conceal the reality that its illegal presence is tightly constrained," Yang said.
China's handling of the Ren'ai Jiao situation, meanwhile, has consistently reflected restraint and humanitarian considerations. According to a statement by the China Coast Guard (CCG) spokesperson on the transfer of injured personnel by the Philippine side, Jiang Lue, a CCG spokesperson, said that on the morning of July 21, out of humanitarian considerations, China allowed the Philippines to transfer injured personnel by small boats from the BRP Sierra Madre (LT-57), which has been illegally grounded at Ren'ai Jiao, to Philippine Coast Guard vessel 9702. The CCG questioned and verified the Philippine vessels and monitored the entire process.
The CCG will continue to carry out rights-protection and law enforcement operations in accordance with the law in the waters around Ren'ai Jiao to safeguard China's territorial sovereignty and maritime rights and interests, Jiang said.
Yang said, stressing that Manila's tough talk and one-sided claims cannot make up for its legal and moral shortcomings.
"Any attempt to permanently occupy Chinese islands and reefs, unilaterally tear up the understanding and continuously challenge China's territorial sovereignty runs counter to international law and the broader trend toward peace and development in the region and is ultimately doomed to fail," Yang added.
。最近，国际货币基金组织（IMF）的一把手和二把手接连发声警告“灰犀牛”： IMF总裁“一把手”格奥尔基耶娃表示，私募信贷市场规模已突破2.3万亿美元，远超监管与数据监测能力，是她“夜不能寐的风险之一”。IMF报告指出，私募信贷基金的高杠杆、低透明度，可能成为下一轮信用紧缩的触发点。同时IMF的“二把手”第一副总裁、前首席经济学家吉塔·戈皮纳特（Gita Gopinath）称美国股市如果崩盘，将可能引发比2000年互联网泡沫更严重、更全球化的经济危机。并称如果出现类似2000年的崩盘，美国家庭可能损失超20万亿美元，外国投资者损失约15万亿美元。这两个看似独立的警告，实则指向同一条暗流：全球金融体系的脆弱性正在加深，而结果或是史诗级财富大重置。 IMF对股票崩盘严重性的估算 IMF的“二把手”第一副总裁、前首席经济学家吉塔·戈皮纳特（Gita Gopinath）公开表示：若出现与互联网泡沫相当幅度的回调，可能会抹去美国家庭超过20万亿美元的财富，约相当于2024年美国GDP的70%…… 全球层面的后果同样严峻。海外投资者可能面临超过15万亿美元的财富损失，约为世界其他地区GDP的20%。相比之下，互联网泡沫破裂时海外损失约2万亿美元，按今日价值约4万亿美元，占当时世界其他地区GDP的不到10%。虽然上面提到的数字非常吓人，但是需要指出的是，吉塔·戈皮纳特（Gita Gopinath）的这段话不是一个“预测”，而是一个“情景分析”或更确切地说是“压力测试”：其核心逻辑是：今天的市场规模和全球对美国资产的敞口远大于2000年，因此同等幅度的下跌将造成大得多的损失。具体而言：互联网泡沫破裂时（2000年～2002年），市场经历了巨幅下跌：以科技股为主的纳斯达克指数（NASDAQ）从高点到低点下跌了约78%；范围更广的标准普尔500指数（S&P 500）下跌了约49%。当然以上都是从高点的最大下跌幅度，为避免用极端值，很多情景分析会取35%作为“互联网泡沫量级”的代表性回调幅度。图：美联储最新统计的美国家庭资产负债表如果按照目前的美国家庭股票持有情况来看，61万亿美元的35%大概就是20万亿美元；相比之下，2024年美国GDP总量为29万亿多点。那海外的15万亿美元损失是怎么来的呢？图：美国财政部统计的外资持有的美国证券存量从上图中可以看出，截至2024年6月30日，外资持有美股大约17万亿美元。（之所以用了这么滞后的数据，是因为这已经是最新数据了。这个数据的发布时滞很长：截至2025年6月的数据，预计在2026年2月27日才能发布）考虑到2024年6月30日标普只有5500点，而现在已经接近6700点，所以按照比例来算：17*（6700/5500）=20.71。如果市值回调35%，外资在美股的损失大概是7万亿美元；另外8万亿美元将来自于美国崩盘向海外股市外溢造成的损失：目前全球股市的总市值大概就是120万亿美元的水平，而美国自己就占了超过60万亿美元，在美国大跌的背景下，非美股市历史上也会联动下跌，但幅度通常低于美国本土。保守起见，即便外围股市跌个15%，这就差不多八九万亿了。这回真的跌不起 35%的幅度，实际上是正常熊市下跌的水平，但是这回真的跌不起。因为这一次不仅仅是蒸发市值这么简单。首先，这一次对消费的影响将非常严重。最近几年（2023～2025年），美国实际个人消费支出（Real PCE）同比大致在2.5%～2.6%附近，但在互联网泡沫前的90年代后期（1998～1999年）：美国实际个人消费支出常见增速在4%～5%。

B | 在目前牛市情况下已经非常疲弱的消费增速，是经不起熊市打击的，特别是现在的美国消费对股市依赖也越来越高的情况下，更是如此： 2022年以来高收入群体支出领跑并托住了美国总消费：美国前10%人群的消费现在占比接近一半，而这群人持股与金融资产占比最高，因而对股市最敏感。主流研究估计股市财富每变动1美元，年消费变动约2.8～5美分，但在目前结构下，影响比例肯定会更高：如果美国股市蒸发20万亿美元，对消费的影响将是上万亿级别。由于美国约70%的GDP都是消费，这个冲击量级足以把当年消费增速拉低数个百分点，从而把GDP增速压低约至少2个百分点。关键问题是，这次可能不太好恢复。以往美国经济危机会出现大量“避险资金”来抄底：历史上，美元在危机时期往往走强，所谓“避险买入”有助于抵消以美元计价财富缩水的冲击。

C | 即便危机来源自美国，投资者也常常涌向美元资产，使美元升值。但现在有理由认为下一次危机时这种机制未必奏效。首先，市场对美联储的看法在维持投资者信心方面至关重要。然而，近期的特朗普对美联储的一系列操控和挑战，让人质疑美联储能否能继续不受外部压力干扰地运作。若此类担忧加深，可能进一步侵蚀对美元及更广泛美国金融资产的信任。第二，与2000年不同的是，如今美国增长面临的逆风更为强劲：美国加征关税，以及全球经济秩序走向的不确定性上升；同时，政府债务处于历史高位，美国像2000年那样通过财政刺激来托底经济的空间也更有限。第三、之前危机都是有全球力量在相互配合，共同走出危机；现在特朗普把人都给得罪了遍，下次危机更可能的范式是各人顾各人，甚至“落井下石”。所以，如果这次美股市场崩盘，其后果不太可能像互联网泡沫破裂后的那样短暂且相对温和。